Here in Philly we are recovering from the blizzard that wasn’t. For days we’d been warned of snow falling multiple inches per hour, winds causing massive drifts and the likelihood of it taking days to clear out. The warnings continued right up until we were just hours away from this weather Armageddon. In the end, only New England really got the brunt of the storm. We ended up with a few inches. So how could the weather forecasters have been this wrong?
The simple answer is of course that weather forecasting is complicated. There are so many factors that impact the weather…in this case an “inverted trough” caused the storm to develop differently than expected. So even with the massive historical data available and the variety of data points at their disposal the weather forecasters can be surprised.
At TRC we do an awful lot of conjoint research…a sort of product forecast if you will. It got me thinking about some keys to avoiding making the same kinds of mistakes as the weather forecasters made on this storm:
So, with all these limitations is conjoint worth it? Well, I would suggest that even though the weather forecasters can be spectacularly wrong, I doubt many of us ignore them. Who sets out for work when snow is falling without checking to see if things will improve? Who heads off on a winter business trip without checking to see what clothes to pack? The same is true for conjoint. With all the limitations it has, a well executed model (and executing well takes knowledge, experience and skill) will provide clear guidance on marketing decisions.
Rich brings a passion for quantitative data and the use of choice to understand consumer behavior to his blog entries. His unique perspective has allowed him to muse on subjects as far afield as Dinosaurs and advanced technology with insight into what each can teach us about doing better research.