December and January are full of articles that tell us what to expect in the New Year. There is certainly nothing wrong with thinking about the future (far from it), but it is important that we do so with a few things in mind. Predications are easy to make, but hard to get right, at least consistently.
First, to some extent we all suffer from the “past results predict the future” model. We do so because quite often they do, but there is no way to know when they no longer will. As such, be wary of predictions that say something like “last year neuro research was used by 5% of fortune 500 companies…web panels hit the 5% mark and then exploded to more than 50% within three years.” It might be right to assume the two will have similar outcomes, or it might be that the two situations (both in terms of the technique and in terms of the market at the time) are quite different.
Second, we all bring a bias to our thinking. We have made business decisions based on where we think the market is going and so it is only natural that our predictions might line up with that. At TRC we’ve invested in agile products to aid in the early stage product development process. I did so because I believe the market is looking for rigorous, fast and inexpensive ways to solve problems like ideation, prioritization and concept evaluation. Quite naturally if I’m asked to predict the future I’ll tend to see these as having great potential.
Third, some people will be completely self-serving in their predictions. So, for example, we do a tremendous amount of discrete choice conjoint work. I certainly would like to think that this area will grow in the next year so I might be tempted to make the prediction in the hopes that readers will suddenly start thinking about doing a conjoint study.
Fourth, an expert isn’t always right. Hearing predictions is useful, but ultimately you have to consider the reasoning behind them, seek out your own sources of information and consider things that you already know. Just because someone has a prediction published, doesn’t mean they know the future any better than you do.
I’ll refrain from making any bold predictions myself. I think as always there will be a group of researchers who cling to the status quo who are surprised that this doesn’t work anymore. There will be others who turn away completely from the way things used to be done and bank on something new. Some of them will do very well, most will utterly fail. The rest of us will recognize that you can’t get in the way of progress. We’ll seek to stay informed about the new things that are out there and carefully consider (with an open mind) how we might use these new tools to deliver better insight for our clients. And if we do this, I predict we’ll all be around next January to debate the predictions for 2017.
Rich brings a passion for quantitative data and the use of choice to understand consumer behavior to his blog entries. His unique perspective has allowed him to muse on subjects as far afield as Dinosaurs and advanced technology with insight into what each can teach us about doing better research.