Was the election outcome a surprise for you? It wasn’t for me.
In some ways election night was quite boring. And I blame Nate Silver, Sam Wang and others who predicted the outcome with such stunning accuracy that (at least for me) the drama was completely missing. While conventional pundits and partisans were making all kinds of predictions ranging from “Toss-up” to “Romney landslide”, a group of analysts (nerds, if you choose) were quietly predicting that Obama had a small but consistent and predictable lead. Turns out they were spot-on in their predictions (and were predictably smeared by vested interests).
In my last post I talked about Nate Silver and the approach he uses. This time I want to draw your attention to another analyst, Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium. He is a neuroscientist who has been forecasting for the last three presidential election cycles and has been doing a remarkably good job of it. He nailed the Electoral College vote in 2004 and missed by just one in 2008. How did he do this time? Well, he had two predictions. One of them (based on his median estimator) was 303 for Obama, which is where the tally currently stands, subject to Florida being officially called. The second one (based on his modal estimator) was 332 for Obama which is where the tally is likely to end up if/when Obama wins Florida. Excellent calls whichever way you look at it, given the extremely close race in Florida.